SPC Convective Outlooks
Official severe-thunderstorm risk outlooks, including tornado, damaging wind and hail probabilities.
Open current outlooks ↗A US-focused severe-weather operations desk for storm outlooks, mesoscale analysis, atmospheric parameters and meteorology learning.
This website is an information hub, not an official warning service. Always follow emergency services and your local meteorological agency.
Quick access to operational warning and forecast sources. Links open the source agency; check its issue time, validity period and geographic coverage.
Official severe-thunderstorm risk outlooks, including tornado, damaging wind and hail probabilities.
Open current outlooks ↗Check current tornado and severe-thunderstorm watches, watch areas and valid times.
Open current watches ↗Short-term SPC discussions that describe developing threats and potential watch issuance.
Open active discussions ↗Warnings and alerts issued by local NWS forecast offices. Select a location for the latest information.
Open NWS alerts ↗Jump into official analysis products, then use the worksheet to organise the environment you are analysing. The worksheet does not fetch or invent live atmospheric observations.
Operational maps for instability, wind fields, moisture, boundaries and severe-weather parameters.
Open SPC mesoanalysis ↗Review temperature, dew point, wind with height, cap strength and parcel characteristics using current sounding data.
Open sounding archive ↗Use radar alongside warnings and storm reports; radar signatures alone do not confirm a tornado.
Open NWS radar ↗This version uses the National Weather Service's own clickable sounding-station map instead of a separate map that can fail to load or point to the wrong product. Click a four-character station ID on the official map to open its sounding.
The map is hosted by weather.gov, so station locations and sounding links come directly from the National Weather Service.
Open clickable sounding map ↗Enter values from a current sounding or analysis map. This is a learning aid, not an automated forecast or warning.
Context matters: parcel choice, storm mode, forcing, boundaries, capping, storm motion and data quality can change the interpretation. No single parameter predicts a tornado.
Direct imagery from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center. Images can update or move as the SPC publishes new products; open the official product page for issue times and full context.
These are external image files, not a live radar display. Product availability and filenames are controlled by the SPC.
Reliable starting points for forecasts, radar, watches and storm reports.
Local time in key US storm-monitoring regions, Australia and UTC.
Explore how temperature and dew point change with height, identify a cap, and follow a conceptual parcel path. Select a training profile to see how the thermodynamic story changes.
The gap between temperature and dew point is a rough indicator of low-level moisture. A smaller gap generally means higher relative humidity.
A warm layer aloft inhibits parcels from reaching free convection. Strong inhibition can delay initiation until stronger lift or heating erodes the cap.
The parcel trace is schematic. CAPE represents positive buoyant energy after the parcel reaches its level of free convection; it is not a storm or tornado guarantee.
The LCL approximates where a lifted parcel becomes saturated. The LFC is where it first becomes positively buoyant relative to the environment. They are different levels and depend on the parcel method.
Work through short lessons and knowledge checks on US severe-weather forecasting. Choose a topic, study the key concepts, then answer the question to check your understanding.
Complete lessons and forecasting scenarios to build your score. Progress is saved in this browser.
Storm structure and the ingredients that shape tornado potential.
In progressBoundaries, hodographs and how the environment affects storm evolution.
Up nextRadar interpretation and an applied forecast scenario.
Up nextLearning objective: distinguish a supercell from an ordinary thunderstorm.
A supercell is a thunderstorm characterised by a persistent, deep rotating updraft called a mesocyclone. Rotation is often supported by vertical wind shear, which changes wind speed and/or direction with height.
Forecasters combine radar trends, environmental wind profiles, instability, boundaries and storm evolution rather than relying on one visual signature.
A forecast area has moderate-to-strong instability, strengthening deep-layer shear, a moist low-level air mass and a dryline approaching from the west. CIN remains present, and storms have not initiated yet. What is the most defensible next step?
This is a fictional training case, not a live forecast. Real decisions require current observations and official guidance.
Learn how outlook categories, watch probabilities and mesoscale discussions are used in US severe-weather forecasting.
SPC FAQ ↗Explore thunderstorm ingredients, storm organisation, hazards and forecast reasoning.
NOAA/NSSL learning centre ↗Plan ahead, follow official warnings, and never put yourself or others at risk to observe or film a storm.
NWS tornado safety ↗